Fleetwood vs Shrewsbury
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
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DLLLWThe score model makes a Fleetwood win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 56.9% vs 49.3% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fleetwood 1.49 – 0.82 Shrewsbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood win | 53.3% | 48.4% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.3% | -1.4% |
| Shrewsbury win | 20.8% | 24.3% | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 47.1% | -6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 27.1% | -6.8% |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 50.7% | -7.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 31.5% | -7.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fleetwood 46.8 / Shrewsbury 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.