Fleetwood vs Shrewsbury
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
DLLLD
WDDWLThe score model made a Fleetwood win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fleetwood 1.54 – 0.79 Shrewsbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood win | 55.2% | 48.9% | +6.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Shrewsbury win | 19.2% | 23.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 46.3% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% | 25.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 50.4% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 31.8% | -6.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fleetwood 47.2 / Shrewsbury 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.