Chesterfield vs Barnet
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WWLWD
DDWWWThe score model made a Chesterfield win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chesterfield 1.44 – 1.32 Barnet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 40.1% | 43.6% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.5% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Barnet win | 34.5% | 29.9% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 54.0% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 33.3% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 57.6% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | 36.8% | +4.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chesterfield 48.7 / Barnet 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.