Chesterfield vs Barnet
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LDLWL
WWWWDThe score model makes a Chesterfield win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 42.6% vs 35.0% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chesterfield 1.45 – 1.33 Barnet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 40.4% | 40.2% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 27.5% | -2.5% |
| Barnet win | 34.6% | 32.3% | +2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 51.3% | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 31.1% | -0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 56.0% | +0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.6% | 35.0% | +7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chesterfield 48.2 / Barnet 31.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.