Accrington vs Crawley
League Two, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DLDLL
DDLWLThe score model makes an Accrington win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 73.0% vs 66.7% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Accrington 1.35 – 1.07 Crawley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 43.5% | 44.4% | -1.0% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.4% | -0.5% |
| Crawley win | 29.7% | 28.2% | +1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 48.5% | -5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 28.0% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 53.2% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 33.3% | -6.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Accrington 54 / Crawley 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.