Swindon vs Port Vale

League Two, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET

LLDLL

3 : 1

full-time · HT 1:1

xG 1.30 – 1.22 · H 3.31 · X 3.39 · A 2.09

LLWLW

The score model made a Swindon win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.

Scoreline probabilities

1:112.1%

1:011.1%

2:18.8%

0:18.2%

0:07.7%

2:07.2%

Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.

First goal · head-to-head

0–1515–3030–4545–6060–7575–90

Swindon (30)Port Vale (30)

2026-09-01 · Swindon – Port Vale3:1

2025-02-08 · Swindon – Port Vale3:3

2024-09-28 · Port Vale – Swindon2:1

Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)

One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Swindon 1.30 – 1.22 Port Vale.

Market	Data %	Implied	Divergence	Result
Swindon win	38.8%	28.1%	+10.7%	✓
Draw	26.5%	27.4%	-0.9%	✗
Port Vale win	34.7%	44.5%	-9.7%	✗
Over 1.5 goals	71.5%	—	—	✓
Over 2.5 goals	46.1%	48.7%	-2.6%	✓
Over 3.5 goals	24.6%	28.1%	-3.5%	✓
Both teams to score	51.0%	53.2%	-2.2%	✓
HT over 0.5 goals	64.4%	—	—	✓
HT over 1.5 goals	29.0%	33.6%	-4.6%	✓

Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Swindon 56.7 / Port Vale 17.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.

Averaged bookmaker prices: home 3.31, draw 3.39, away 2.09; Over 2.5 1.93, Under 2.5 1.83; HT Over 1.5 2.77, HT Under 1.5 1.40.

How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.