Swindon vs Port Vale
League Two, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
LLDWL
WLLDDThe score model makes a Swindon win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.0% vs 68.4% implied (+2.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Swindon 1.30 – 1.22 Port Vale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 38.8% | 36.9% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.7% | -1.2% |
| Port Vale win | 34.7% | 35.5% | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 46.7% | -0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 26.9% | -2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 51.5% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 31.6% | -2.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Swindon 56.9 / Port Vale 17.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.