Fleetwood vs Oldham
League Two, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
DLLLD
LLLLDThe score model made an Oldham win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fleetwood 1.01 – 1.23 Oldham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood win | 30.5% | 35.7% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 28.3% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Oldham win | 41.3% | 36.1% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 48.1% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.0% | 27.7% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 53.9% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 33.2% | -8.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fleetwood 46.6 / Oldham 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.