Fleetwood vs Oldham
League Two, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
DDWDD
LWWLWThe score model makes an Oldham win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 61.1% vs 51.9% implied (+9.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fleetwood 1.01 – 1.23 Oldham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood win | 30.5% | 37.2% | -6.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 28.1% | +0.1% |
| Oldham win | 41.3% | 34.7% | +6.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 48.1% | -9.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.0% | 27.6% | -8.7% |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 53.8% | -8.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 33.1% | -8.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fleetwood 46.8 / Oldham 32.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.