Accrington vs Grimsby
League Two, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
LDDWD
WWLLLThe score model made a Grimsby win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Accrington 1.18 – 1.42 Grimsby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 31.4% | 26.7% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.7% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Grimsby win | 42.8% | 46.7% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 49.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 28.9% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 53.6% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 34.5% | +4.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Accrington 53.8 / Grimsby 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.