Accrington vs Grimsby
League Two, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
DLDLL
DLWDDThe score model makes a Grimsby win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 39.0% vs 33.2% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Accrington 1.18 – 1.42 Grimsby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 31.4% | 26.6% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.9% | -1.2% |
| Grimsby win | 42.8% | 46.5% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 48.3% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 27.7% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 52.2% | +0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 33.2% | +5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Accrington 54 / Grimsby 58 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.