Oxford Utd vs Burton
League One, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WWDWD
DWLLDThe score model made an Oxford Utd win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oxford Utd 1.89 – 1.06 Burton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd win | 56.9% | 50.7% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.6% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Burton win | 21.0% | 23.7% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 53.9% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 33.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 56.0% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 36.6% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oxford Utd 14 / Burton 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oxford Utd vs Burton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.