AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster
League One, England · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WDDLL
LLWWLThe score model made an AFC Wimbledon win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.29 – 1.19 Doncaster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 39.1% | 35.5% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 28.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Doncaster win | 34.1% | 36.4% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 48.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.8% | 28.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 53.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.4% | 33.4% | -11.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AFC Wimbledon 33.3 / Doncaster 33.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.