Wigan vs Stockport County
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 13:30 CET
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WLWLWThe score model makes a Stockport County win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.8% vs 68.8% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wigan 1.02 – 1.34 Stockport County.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 28.7% | 28.9% | -0.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.5% | -0.4% |
| Stockport County win | 44.3% | 43.6% | +0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 51.3% | -9.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 31.2% | -9.9% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 55.7% | -8.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 34.8% | -1.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wigan 54 / Stockport County 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.