Reading vs Blackpool
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DLLDW
WDWWLThe score model makes a Reading win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.2% vs 65.3% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Reading 1.59 – 1.22 Blackpool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 46.2% | 45.4% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.9% | -2.5% |
| Blackpool win | 29.4% | 27.7% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 50.9% | +2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 30.2% | +0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 55.1% | +0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 34.7% | -3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Reading 53.6 / Blackpool 54.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.