Reading vs Blackpool
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WDDWL
LDLLLThe score model made a Reading win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Reading 1.59 – 1.22 Blackpool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reading win | 46.2% | 47.3% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.9% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Blackpool win | 29.3% | 26.8% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 54.4% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 33.6% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 57.4% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 36.5% | -5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Reading 53.4 / Blackpool 54.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Reading vs Blackpool in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.