Luton vs Leyton Orient
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
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LDLWLThe score model makes a Luton win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 49.7% vs 41.1% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Luton 1.82 – 1.27 Leyton Orient.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 50.6% | 57.3% | -6.7% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.7% | -1.1% |
| Leyton Orient win | 26.8% | 19.0% | +7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 59.0% | +0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 37.5% | -0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 57.6% | +2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.7% | 41.1% | +8.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Luton 32 / Leyton Orient 53.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.