Doncaster vs Plymouth
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DWLDD
WWLDWThe score model makes a Plymouth win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Plymouth win — 46.9% vs 34.8% implied (+12.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Doncaster 1.23 – 1.63 Plymouth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 29.0% | 38.5% | -9.5% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 26.6% | -2.6% |
| Plymouth win | 46.9% | 34.8% | +12.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 52.6% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 31.2% | +0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 57.6% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 35.4% | -4.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Doncaster 32 / Plymouth 35.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.