Doncaster vs Plymouth
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DLLWW
WWLWWThe score model made a Plymouth win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Doncaster 1.24 – 1.57 Plymouth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 30.4% | 37.3% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Plymouth win | 45.0% | 35.6% | +9.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 53.8% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 33.2% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 58.2% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 36.2% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Doncaster 32.7 / Plymouth 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.