Burton vs Cambridge Utd
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LDWLL
DWDDWThe score model made a Burton win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burton 1.44 – 0.95 Cambridge Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 48.5% | 34.4% | +14.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 29.2% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Cambridge Utd win | 25.1% | 36.4% | -11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 44.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 24.8% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 50.7% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 30.3% | -4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burton 57.5 / Cambridge Utd 28.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.