Bradford City vs Mansfield
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
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LLDDWThe score model made a Bradford City win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.31 – 1.01 Mansfield.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford City win | 43.6% | 51.7% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Mansfield win | 28.9% | 21.8% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 49.5% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 29.2% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 52.3% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 33.3% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bradford City 34.3 / Mansfield 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.