Barnsley vs Stevenage
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WLLDL
DWWLWThe score model made a Barnsley win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:5 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.34 – 1.02 Stevenage.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 44.1% | 44.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.9% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Stevenage win | 28.7% | 27.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 48.8% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 29.1% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 53.4% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 33.6% | -11.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barnsley 58.1 / Stevenage 56.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.