Barnsley vs Stevenage
League One, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WLLDW
LLDLDThe score model makes a Barnsley win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 76.8% vs 68.0% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.36 – 1.05 Stevenage.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 44.2% | 37.2% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 28.8% | -2.1% |
| Stevenage win | 29.1% | 34.0% | -4.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 47.2% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 27.2% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 53.0% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 32.0% | -8.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barnsley 57.8 / Stevenage 55.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.