Barnsley vs Blackpool
League One, England · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
WLLDW
WWDWWThe score model makes a Barnsley win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 65.5% vs 62.0% implied (+3.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.58 – 1.41 Blackpool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 41.8% | 40.5% | +1.3% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.4% | -2.5% |
| Blackpool win | 34.3% | 33.0% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | 55.9% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.0% | 35.2% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 59.9% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 38.0% | -3.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barnsley 57.8 / Blackpool 53.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.