Barnsley vs Blackpool
League One, England · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
WLLDL
LLDLLThe score model made a Barnsley win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.57 – 1.41 Blackpool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 41.5% | 43.4% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Blackpool win | 34.5% | 30.4% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 57.2% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.7% | 36.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 60.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 39.0% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barnsley 57.4 / Blackpool 53.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.