Peterborough vs Stevenage
League One, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
LDLLW
DWWLWThe score model made a Peterborough win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Peterborough 1.34 – 1.09 Stevenage.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough win | 42.7% | 38.4% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 28.4% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Stevenage win | 30.6% | 33.2% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% | 48.8% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 28.4% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 54.4% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 33.6% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Peterborough 57 / Stevenage 55.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.