Bradford City vs Cambridge Utd
League One, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
WWWDD
DWDDWThe score model made a Bradford City win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.47 – 0.72 Cambridge Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford City win | 55.3% | 49.8% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Cambridge Utd win | 18.6% | 22.8% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.4% | 47.1% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 27.2% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.3% | 50.7% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 31.7% | -10.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bradford City 33.6 / Cambridge Utd 28.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.