Bradford City vs Cambridge Utd
League One, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
LLWWL
LLWDLThe score model makes a Bradford City win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 62.6% vs 49.2% implied (+13.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bradford City 1.47 – 0.72 Cambridge Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford City win | 55.2% | 53.3% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.5% | +0.8% |
| Cambridge Utd win | 18.6% | 21.3% | -2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.4% | 50.8% | -13.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 30.2% | -12.4% |
| Both teams to score | 39.4% | 52.0% | -12.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 34.5% | -13.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bradford City 33.7 / Cambridge Utd 28.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.