Mansfield vs Luton
League One, England · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
WWLWL
WWDLWThe score model made a Mansfield win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 5:2 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mansfield 1.45 – 1.36 Luton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 39.6% | 32.6% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Luton win | 35.6% | 41.5% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 59.4% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 38.6% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 62.3% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 40.7% | +1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mansfield 46.1 / Luton 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.