Leyton Orient vs Barnsley
League One, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
DLWLW
LLDWWThe score model made a Leyton Orient win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.73 – 1.35 Barnsley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 46.6% | 41.5% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 26.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Barnsley win | 30.3% | 31.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 52.8% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 32.1% | +5.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 56.9% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 36.0% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leyton Orient 53 / Barnsley 56.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.