Derby vs Birmingham
Championship, England · 2026-09-12 · 13:30 CET
LDDLL
WDWWWThe score model made a Derby win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Derby 1.33 – 1.08 Birmingham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 41.4% | 27.2% | +14.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.8% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Birmingham win | 29.5% | 44.0% | -14.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 46.6% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 26.7% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 52.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 31.6% | +5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Derby 48.4 / Birmingham 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Derby vs Birmingham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.