Derby vs West Brom
Championship, England · 2026-09-09 · 20:45 CET
LLDDL
WDLLWThe score model made a Derby win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Derby 1.29 – 1.10 West Brom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 39.7% | 26.8% | +12.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| West Brom win | 30.9% | 45.1% | -14.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 47.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 27.1% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 52.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 32.9% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Derby 47.7 / West Brom 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.