Portsmouth vs Derby
Championship, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
WDLWL
WLLDLThe score model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Derby win — 35.4% vs 29.6% implied (+5.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.33 – 1.30 Derby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 37.0% | 41.8% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.5% | -1.0% |
| Derby win | 35.4% | 29.6% | +5.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 47.1% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 27.4% | -0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 52.8% | +1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 32.1% | +2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portsmouth 47.5 / Derby 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.