Portsmouth vs Derby
Championship, England · 2026-09-01 · 20:45 CET
LWDDL
LLLDDThe score model made a Portsmouth win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.33 – 1.30 Derby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 37.0% | 48.3% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.4% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Derby win | 35.4% | 24.3% | +11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 47.4% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 27.4% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 51.6% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 32.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portsmouth 47.3 / Derby 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.