Al Masry vs Al Ittihad
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-15 · 19:00 CET
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LWWWWThe score model made an Al Masry win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Masry 1.35 – 0.81 Al Ittihad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Masry win | 47.5% | 46.0% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 32.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Al Ittihad win | 20.7% | 21.5% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.5% | 32.3% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.2% | 16.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 39.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 23.5% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Masry 34.3 / Al Ittihad 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Masry vs Al Ittihad in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.