Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Zamalek – Al Ahly+8.4%
Home win · data 32% vs market 23%
Fastest starters
Ceramica Cleopatra20%
2 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Ceramica Cleopatra20%
2 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+6.9%Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +6.9% at market prices across 50 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-3.9 ptsGhazl El Mahallah produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
16%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 45.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Zamalek – Al Ahly2026-10-11 17:00Home winModel 31.6%Implied 23.2%▲ +8.4%- Modern Sport – Enppi2026-10-12 14:00Away winModel 33.7%Implied 26.7%▲ +7.0%
- Al Ittihad – El Gouna2026-10-13 17:00Under 2.5Model 79.0%Implied 76.3%▲ +2.6%
- Pyramids – Ceramica Cleopatra2026-10-12 17:00Away winModel 20.1%Implied 17.6%▲ +2.5%
- Smouha – Ghazl El Mahallah2026-10-12 17:00Over 1.5 HTModel 23.5%Implied 21.6%▲ +1.9%
- National Bank Egypt – El Gaish2026-10-13 14:00Under 1.5 HTModel 81.8%Implied 80.0%▲ +1.8%
- Petrojet – Wadi Degla2026-10-13 17:00Away winModel 38.1%Implied 38.5%-0.3%
- Arab Contractors – ZED2026-10-12 14:00Away winModel 38.3%Implied 39.4%-1.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zamalek– Al Ahly | 2026-10-11 | 17:00 | Home win | 31.6% | 23.2% | ▲ +8.4% | 4.31 |
| 2 |  Modern Sport– Enppi | 2026-10-12 | 14:00 | Away win | 33.7% | 26.7% | ▲ +7.0% | 3.75 |
| 3 |  Al Ittihad– El Gouna | 2026-10-13 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 79.0% | 76.3% | ▲ +2.6% | 1.31 |
| 4 |  Pyramids– Ceramica Cleopatra | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | Away win | 20.1% | 17.6% | ▲ +2.5% | 5.69 |
| 5 |  Smouha– Ghazl El Mahallah | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 23.5% | 21.6% | ▲ +1.9% | 4.64 |
| 6 |  National Bank Egypt– El Gaish | 2026-10-13 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 81.8% | 80.0% | ▲ +1.8% | 1.25 |
| 7 |  Petrojet– Wadi Degla | 2026-10-13 | 17:00 | Away win | 38.1% | 38.5% | -0.3% | 2.60 |
| 8 |  Arab Contractors– ZED | 2026-10-12 | 14:00 | Away win | 38.3% | 39.4% | -1.1% | 2.54 |
Add Premier League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Pyramids win the 2026-2027 title in 50% of them, projecting ~43 points; Al Ahly are next at 33%. At the other end, Asyut Petroleum finish in the bottom three in 79% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids | 15 | 43 | 37–48 | 50% | 99% | — |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 13 | 41 | 35–47 | 33% | 97% | — |
| 3 | Zamalek | 13 | 38 | 32–44 | 13% | 90% | — |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 12 | 34 | 28–40 | 3% | 68% | <1% |
| 5 | ZED | 7 | 27 | 21–33 | <1% | 9% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Abu Qir Semad | 3 | 17 | 12–22 | — | — | 56% |
| 19 | Ghazl El Mahallah | 1 | 17 | 11–22 | — | <1% | 57% |
| 20 | Asyut Petroleum | 2 | 14 | 9–19 | — | <1% | 79% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 140 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +6.9%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Away wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out +6.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▲ +6.2%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out +6.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▲ +0.5%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out +0.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −15.8%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Home wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −15.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −21.0%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −21.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −39.5%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −39.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −39.8%
at market prices · 50 matcheschart →
Draws in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 50 matches the market's prices paid out −39.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids | 15 | 10.7 | +4.3 | |
| 2 | Zamalek | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 | |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | |
| 5 | Modern Sport | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | El Gouna | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | |
| 19 | Asyut Petroleum | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mahallah | 1 | 4.9 | -3.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisPyramids15 ptsZamalek13 ptsAl Ahly13 ptsCeramica Cleopatra12 ptsModern Sport10 pts
Al Ittihad10 ptsArab Contractors7 ptsPetrojet7 ptsEl Gaish7 ptsZED7 ptsAl Qanah6 pts
Al Masry6 ptsNational Bank Egypt6 ptsWadi Degla5 ptsEnppi4 ptsSmouha4 ptsAbu Qir Semad3 ptsEl Gouna2 ptsAsyut Petroleum2 ptsGhazl El Mahallah1 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+