Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctBiggest divergence
National Bank Egypt – Al Masry+5.6%
Under 1.5 HT · data 81% vs market 75%
Fastest starters
Pyramids24%
4 of their 17 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Modern Sport50%
6 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Bookmaker margin
−2.6%Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, ht under 1.5, returned −2.6% at market prices across 70 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-5.6 ptsEl Gouna produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
23%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 40.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
National Bank Egypt – Al Masry2026-10-28 14:00Under 1.5 HTModel 80.8%Implied 75.2%▲ +5.6%- Zamalek – Arab Contractors2026-10-28 17:00Home winModel 54.3%Implied 52.4%▲ +1.9%
- Pyramids – Wadi Degla2026-10-29 17:00DrawModel 26.0%Implied 24.2%▲ +1.8%
- Al Ittihad – El Gaish2026-10-30 18:00Home winModel 39.0%Implied 37.6%▲ +1.4%
- Ceramica Cleopatra – ZED2026-10-31 18:00Over 1.5 HTModel 30.2%Implied 30.3%-0.1%
- Modern Sport – Al Ahly2026-10-29 14:00Over 2.5Model 47.8%Implied 48.5%-0.8%
- Petrojet – Smouha2026-10-31 18:00Home winModel 33.7%Implied 36.8%-3.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  National Bank Egypt– Al Masry | 2026-10-28 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 80.8% | 75.2% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.33 |
| 2 |  Zamalek– Arab Contractors | 2026-10-28 | 17:00 | Home win | 54.3% | 52.4% | ▲ +1.9% | 1.91 |
| 3 |  Pyramids– Wadi Degla | 2026-10-29 | 17:00 | Draw | 26.0% | 24.2% | ▲ +1.8% | 4.14 |
| 4 |  Al Ittihad– El Gaish | 2026-10-30 | 18:00 | Home win | 39.0% | 37.6% | ▲ +1.4% | 2.66 |
| 5 |  Ceramica Cleopatra– ZED | 2026-10-31 | 18:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 30.2% | 30.3% | -0.1% | 3.30 |
| 6 |  Modern Sport– Al Ahly | 2026-10-29 | 14:00 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% | 48.5% | -0.8% | 2.06 |
| 7 |  Petrojet– Smouha | 2026-10-31 | 18:00 | Home win | 33.7% | 36.8% | -3.1% | 2.72 |
Add Premier League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Pyramids win the 2026-2027 title in 69% of them, projecting ~45 points; Al Ahly are next at 24%. At the other end, El Gouna finish in the bottom three in 61% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids | 21 | 45 | 40–50 | 69% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 17 | 42 | 36–47 | 24% | 98% | — |
| 3 | Zamalek | 16 | 37 | 32–43 | 5% | 87% | — |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 15 | 35 | 29–40 | 1% | 69% | <1% |
| 5 | ZED | 11 | 28 | 23–33 | <1% | 11% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Asyut Petroleum | 5 | 16 | 11–21 | — | <1% | 58% |
| 19 | Abu Qir Semad | 4 | 16 | 11–21 | — | <1% | 61% |
| 20 |  El Gouna | 2 | 15 | 10–21 | — | — | 61% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 120 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Under 1.5▼ −2.6%
at market prices · 70 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 70 matches the market's prices paid out −2.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −4.6%
at market prices · 70 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 70 matches the market's prices paid out −4.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −5.4%
at market prices · 70 matcheschart →
Away wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 70 matches the market's prices paid out −5.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −8.9%
at market prices · 70 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 70 matches the market's prices paid out −8.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −12.7%
at market prices · 70 matcheschart →
Home wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 70 matches the market's prices paid out −12.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −17.6%
at market prices · 70 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 70 matches the market's prices paid out −17.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −27.3%
at market prices · 70 matcheschart →
Draws in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 70 matches the market's prices paid out −27.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids | 21 | 14.8 | +6.3 | |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 17 | 15.3 | +1.7 | |
| 3 | Zamalek | 16 | 12.5 | +3.5 | |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 15 | 10.4 | +4.6 | |
| 5 | Modern Sport | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Abu Qir Semad | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | |
| 19 |  Ghazl El Mahallah | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | |
| 20 | El Gouna | 2 | 7.6 | -5.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisPyramids21 ptsAl Ahly17 ptsZamalek16 ptsCeramica Cleopatra15 ptsModern Sport13 pts
Al Ittihad13 ptsArab Contractors11 ptsZED11 ptsNational Bank Egypt10 ptsSmouha10 ptsAl Qanah8 ptsPetrojet8 ptsAl Masry8 ptsWadi Degla7 ptsEl Gaish7 ptsAsyut Petroleum5 pts
Enppi4 ptsAbu Qir Semad4 ptsGhazl El Mahallah4 ptsEl Gouna2 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+