Modern Sport vs Wadi Degla
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-09 · 16:00 CET
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WDLLDThe score model made a Wadi Degla win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Modern Sport 0.75 – 1.15 Wadi Degla.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modern Sport win | 22.2% | 21.2% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 34.7% | 31.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Wadi Degla win | 43.1% | 47.0% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.5% | 33.1% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.5% | 16.2% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 39.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 50.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 17.5% | 23.4% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Modern Sport 39.2 / Wadi Degla 24.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Modern Sport vs Wadi Degla in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.