Arab Contractors vs Al Ahly
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-09 · 19:00 CET
DWLLW
WWWWWThe score model makes an Al Ahly win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 48.6% vs 44.1% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arab Contractors 0.71 – 1.91 Al Ahly.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arab Contractors win | 11.7% | 12.8% | -1.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 23.8% | +0.1% |
| Al Ahly win | 64.5% | 63.4% | +1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 44.1% | +4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 24.8% | +2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 40.9% | +3.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 29.8% | +0.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arab Contractors 33.8 / Al Ahly 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.