Arab Contractors vs Al Ahly
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-09 · 19:00 CET
LWDWD
WWDWWThe score model made an Al Ahly win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arab Contractors 0.71 – 1.90 Al Ahly.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arab Contractors win | 11.8% | 11.5% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 21.7% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Al Ahly win | 64.1% | 66.9% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 47.7% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 27.6% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 41.1% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 32.9% | -2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arab Contractors 33.5 / Al Ahly 34.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Arab Contractors vs Al Ahly in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.