Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-08 · 19:00 CET
DLLWW
WWWWLThe score model made a Ceramica Cleopatra win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Smouha 0.86 – 1.16 Ceramica Cleopatra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smouha win | 25.1% | 26.2% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.0% | 32.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Ceramica Cleopatra win | 40.9% | 40.9% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.9% | 32.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.7% | 16.2% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.5% | 40.4% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 23.0% | +4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Smouha 33.7 / Ceramica Cleopatra 33.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.