Pyramids vs El Gouna
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-08 · 16:00 CET
DWWWW
WWDDLThe score model makes a Pyramids win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 85.0% vs 79.8% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pyramids 1.52 – 0.52 El Gouna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pyramids win | 60.7% | 63.8% | -3.1% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 25.1% | +3.3% |
| El Gouna win | 10.9% | 11.1% | -0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.4% | 38.4% | -5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.0% | 20.2% | -5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 33.1% | 35.5% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 26.8% | -2.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pyramids 34.5 / El Gouna 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.