Pyramids vs El Gouna
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-09 · 16:00 CET
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DLLLLThe score model made a Pyramids win the most likely outcome at 61%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pyramids 1.52 – 0.52 El Gouna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyramids win | 60.7% | 63.3% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 24.9% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| El Gouna win | 10.9% | 11.8% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.4% | 38.8% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.0% | 20.1% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 33.0% | 35.0% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 27.2% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pyramids 34.1 / El Gouna 36.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pyramids vs El Gouna in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.