Petrojet vs Al Masry
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
WLDLL
WLWWLThe score model makes an Al Masry win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 46.8% vs 41.0% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Petrojet 1.12 – 1.42 Al Masry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrojet win | 28.0% | 25.6% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 30.1% | 34.8% | -4.7% |
| Al Masry win | 41.9% | 39.6% | +2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 41.0% | +5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | 23.9% | +1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 49.6% | +3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 28.4% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Petrojet 30.2 / Al Masry 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.