National Bank Egypt vs Ghazl El Mahallah
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
WDLLW
DWLLDThe score model makes a National Bank Egypt win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 81.2% vs 74.8% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: National Bank Egypt 1.22 – 0.83 Ghazl El Mahallah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Bank Egypt win | 43.3% | 53.8% | -10.5% |
| Draw | 33.6% | 28.9% | +4.6% |
| Ghazl El Mahallah win | 23.2% | 17.3% | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 36.2% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 18.4% | -3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 41.8% | 39.6% | +2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 52.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 25.2% | -6.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: National Bank Egypt 39.5 / Ghazl El Mahallah 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.