Midtjylland vs Brondby
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-14 · 19:00 CET
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LLLWLThe score model made a Midtjylland win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Midtjylland 1.74 – 1.12 Brondby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland win | 50.8% | 52.5% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 24.6% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Brondby win | 23.4% | 22.9% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 60.5% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 40.2% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 60.8% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 40.9% | -9.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Midtjylland 36.2 / Brondby 36.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Midtjylland vs Brondby in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.