Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +16.6% at market prices across 55 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Aarhus produced performances worth 10 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Brondby – Lyngby2026-10-11 14:00
Under 1.5 HTModel 77.2%Implied 63.7%▲ +13.5%Nordsjaelland – Odense2026-10-09 17:00
FT U3.5Model 65.3%Implied 56.2%▲ +9.1%Midtjylland – FC Copenhagen2026-10-11 16:00
Home winModel 43.7%Implied 39.5%▲ +4.2%Randers FC – Viborg2026-10-11 12:00
Under 2.5Model 49.7%Implied 45.9%▲ +3.8%Aarhus – Sonderjyske2026-10-12 17:00
Home winModel 61.7%Implied 62.5%-0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brondby– Lyngby | 2026-10-11 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 77.2% | 63.7% | ▲ +13.5% | 1.57 |
| 2 | Nordsjaelland– Odense | 2026-10-09 | 17:00 | FT U3.5 | 65.3% | 56.2% | ▲ +9.1% | 1.78 |
| 3 | Midtjylland– FC Copenhagen | 2026-10-11 | 16:00 | Home win | 43.7% | 39.5% | ▲ +4.2% | 2.53 |
| 4 | Randers FC– Viborg | 2026-10-11 | 12:00 | Under 2.5 | 49.7% | 45.9% | ▲ +3.8% | 2.18 |
| 5 | Aarhus– Sonderjyske | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | Home win | 61.7% | 62.5% | -0.8% | 1.60 |
Add Superliga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Superliga schedule 10,000 times a day. FC Copenhagen win the 2026-2027 title in 70% of them, projecting ~48 points; Midtjylland are next at 24%. At the other end, Sonderjyske finish in the bottom three in 83% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Midtjylland's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 24 | 48 | 42–53 | ▲70% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Midtjylland | 19 | 43 | 37–49 | ▼24% | 97% | — |
| 3 | Nordsjaelland | 17 | 38 | 32–44 | 4% | 81% | <1% |
| 4 | Viborg | 17 | 35 | 29–41 | 1% | 60% | <1% |
| 5 | Brondby | 13 | 33 | 27–39 | <1% | 35% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Odense | 9 | 23 | 17–29 | — | <1% | 51% |
| 11 | Lyngby | 7 | 20 | 14–25 | — | <1% | 78% |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 5 | 19 | 13–24 | — | <1% | 83% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 78 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Superliga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 24 | 17.3 | +6.7 | |
| 2 | Midtjylland | 19 | 17.6 | +1.4 | |
| 3 | Viborg | 17 | 14.2 | +2.8 | |
| 4 | Nordsjaelland | 17 | 15.2 | +1.8 | |
| 5 | Brondby | 13 | 14.4 | -1.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Lyngby | 7 | 12.2 | -5.2 | |
| 11 | Aarhus | 6 | 15.6 | -9.6 | underperformed expectations |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+











