The season in numbers
Blindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Aarhus produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Nordsjaelland – Aarhus2026-09-13 16:00FT U3.5 ✓70.3%vs 58.8%▲ +11.5%- Lyngby – Sonderjyske2026-09-13 12:00Away win29.2%vs 20.9%▲ +8.3%
- Randers FC – Odense2026-09-13 14:00Under 2.5 ✓52.6%vs 47.2%▲ +5.4%
- Midtjylland – Brondby2026-09-14 17:00Under 1.5 HT ✓69.0%vs 64.5%▲ +4.5%
- Silkeborg – Viborg2026-09-13 12:00Over 1.5 HT ✓49.8%vs 45.9%▲ +3.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nordsjaelland– Aarhus | 2026-09-13 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 70.3% | 58.8% | ▲ +11.5% | 1.70 | |
| 2 |  Lyngby– Sonderjyske | 2026-09-13 | 12:00 | Away win | 29.2% | 20.9% | ▲ +8.3% | 4.79 | |
| 3 |  Randers FC– Odense | 2026-09-13 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 52.6% | 47.2% | ▲ +5.4% | 2.12 | |
| 4 |  Midtjylland– Brondby | 2026-09-14 | 17:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 69.0% | 64.5% | ▲ +4.5% | 1.55 | |
| 5 |  Silkeborg– Viborg | 2026-09-13 | 12:00 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 49.8% | 45.9% | ▲ +3.9% | 2.18 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Superliga schedule 10,000 times a day. FC Copenhagen win the 2026-2027 title in 53% of them, projecting ~45 points; Midtjylland are next at 34%. At the other end, Sonderjyske finish in the bottom three in 91% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: FC Copenhagen's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 18 | 45 | 38–51 | ▲53% | 97% | <1% |
| 2 | Midtjylland | 15 | 43 | 37–49 | 34% | 95% | <1% |
| 3 | Nordsjaelland | 14 | 38 | 32–44 | 8% | 75% | <1% |
| 4 | Brondby | 13 | 35 | 29–42 | 3% | 54% | 1% |
| 5 | Viborg | 13 | 33 | 27–40 | 1% | 36% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Silkeborg | 7 | 23 | 17–29 | — | 1% | 50% |
| 11 | Odense | 5 | 20 | 14–26 | — | <1% | 77% |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 1 | 17 | 11–23 | — | <1% | 91% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 90 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Superliga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 18 | 13.4 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | Midtjylland | 15 | 13.8 | +1.2 | |
| 3 | Nordsjaelland | 14 | 11.8 | +2.2 | |
| 4 | Viborg | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 | |
| 5 | Brondby | 13 | 12.3 | +0.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Aarhus | 5 | 12.8 | -7.8 | |
| 11 | Odense | 5 | 9.0 | -4.0 | |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 1 | 6.4 | -5.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+