Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-11-02 · 19:00 CET
DWLWL
WWWLDThe score model makes an FC Copenhagen win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sonderjyske win — 18.8% vs 14.0% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sonderjyske 1.25 – 2.29 FC Copenhagen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske win | 18.8% | 14.0% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 21.5% | 19.7% | +1.7% |
| FC Copenhagen win | 59.8% | 66.3% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.1% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.1% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sonderjyske 34.5 / FC Copenhagen 36.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.