Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-13 · 18:00 CET
DWLDD
DLDWDThe score model made a Nordsjaelland win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nordsjaelland 1.40 – 1.35 Aarhus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordsjaelland win | 37.5% | 51.6% | -14.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 24.0% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Aarhus win | 35.1% | 24.4% | +10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 64.4% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 43.7% | -14.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 64.2% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 44.1% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nordsjaelland 36.3 / Aarhus 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.