Lyngby vs Sonderjyske
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-13 · 14:00 CET
WDLLD
LDWLWThe score model made a Lyngby win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lyngby 1.45 – 1.16 Sonderjyske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyngby win | 42.8% | 59.1% | -16.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 22.2% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Sonderjyske win | 29.2% | 18.7% | +10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 60.6% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 39.5% | -13.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 57.9% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 41.3% | -11.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lyngby 16.7 / Sonderjyske 32.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lyngby vs Sonderjyske in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.