Midtjylland vs Nordsjaelland
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
WDWDW
LDWLDThe score model made a Midtjylland win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Midtjylland 1.73 – 1.14 Nordsjaelland.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland win | 50.3% | 48.7% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.1% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Nordsjaelland win | 24.2% | 26.1% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 60.6% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 39.5% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 61.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 41.2% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Midtjylland 35.7 / Nordsjaelland 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.