Odense vs FC Copenhagen
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
DLWDD
WWWWLThe score model made an FC Copenhagen win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 0:5 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Odense 1.30 – 2.05 FC Copenhagen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odense win | 23.2% | 25.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| FC Copenhagen win | 54.0% | 50.5% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 60.6% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.1% | 39.6% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 61.5% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 41.4% | +5.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Odense 29.6 / FC Copenhagen 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.