Viborg vs Lyngby
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-04 · 19:00 CET
WWLDW
LDWDLThe score model made a Viborg win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viborg 1.71 – 0.96 Lyngby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg win | 54.1% | 52.8% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 23.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Lyngby win | 20.1% | 23.3% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 60.5% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 39.6% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 60.7% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 41.3% | -6.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viborg 35.9 / Lyngby 16 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.