FC Copenhagen vs Nordsjaelland
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-03 · 20:00 CET
WWWWW
WLDWLThe score model made an FC Copenhagen win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Copenhagen 1.82 – 1.42 Nordsjaelland.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen win | 46.3% | 43.6% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Nordsjaelland win | 29.3% | 31.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 66.1% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.7% | 45.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | 67.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 45.1% | -1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Copenhagen 35 / Nordsjaelland 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.