Kolding IF vs Fredericia
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-12 · 18:30 CET
LDDDW
WDDWWThe score model made a Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kolding IF 0.95 – 1.33 Fredericia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolding IF win | 26.0% | 25.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.1% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Fredericia win | 44.6% | 49.3% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 59.1% | -19.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 37.9% | -18.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | 60.5% | -14.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.4% | 40.6% | -18.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kolding IF 35.3 / Fredericia 16.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kolding IF vs Fredericia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.