Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +40.2% at market prices across 54 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Esbjerg produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 22.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Hillerod – Fredericia2026-10-10 11:00Under 2.5Model 53.5%Implied 41.3%▲ +12.1%- Esbjerg – Aalborg2026-10-10 11:30Under 1.5 HTModel 68.6%Implied 62.9%▲ +5.7%
- Hobro – Kolding IF2026-10-10 16:30Under 2.5Model 60.9%Implied 55.9%▲ +5.0%
- Vendsyssel – Koge2026-10-11 12:00Over 1.5 HTModel 40.2%Implied 37.7%▲ +2.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hillerod– Fredericia | 2026-10-10 | 11:00 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 41.3% | ▲ +12.1% | 2.42 |
| 2 |  Esbjerg– Aalborg | 2026-10-10 | 11:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 68.6% | 62.9% | ▲ +5.7% | 1.59 |
| 3 |  Hobro– Kolding IF | 2026-10-10 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 55.9% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.79 |
| 4 |  Vendsyssel– Koge | 2026-10-11 | 12:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 40.2% | 37.7% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.65 |
Add 1st Division fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining 1st Division schedule 10,000 times a day. Vejle win the 2026-2027 title in 58% of them, projecting ~43 points; Hvidovre IF are next at 33%. At the other end, Koge finish in the bottom three in 77% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle | 19 | 43 | 37–49 | 58% | 98% | — |
| 2 |  Hvidovre IF | 21 | 41 | 35–47 | 33% | 96% | — |
| 3 | Fredericia | 14 | 36 | 30–41 | 7% | 78% | <1% |
| 4 |  Aarhus Fremad | 13 | 32 | 26–38 | 2% | 49% | 4% |
| 5 | Aalborg | 13 | 30 | 24–36 | <1% | 26% | 10% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Kolding IF | 8 | 25 | 19–31 | <1% | 6% | 36% |
| 11 | Esbjerg | 5 | 21 | 15–27 | — | 1% | 71% |
| 12 | Koge | 7 | 21 | 15–26 | — | <1% | 77% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 78 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/denmark/1st-division/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="1st Division live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/denmark/1st-division">1st Division stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 1st Division match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre IF | 21 | 12.4 | +8.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Vejle | 19 | 16.1 | +2.9 | |
| 3 | Fredericia | 14 | 15.9 | -1.9 | |
| 4 | Aarhus Fremad | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 | |
| 5 | Aalborg | 13 | 13.5 | -0.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Kolding IF | 8 | 11.9 | -3.9 | |
| 11 | Koge | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 5 | 11.7 | -6.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+