The season in numbers
Blindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Esbjerg produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 23.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Kolding IF – Fredericia2026-09-12 16:30Under 2.560.7%vs 43.1%▲ +17.6%- Hvidovre IF – Aalborg2026-09-12 12:00Under 1.5 HT ✓74.6%vs 67.1%▲ +7.5%
- Esbjerg – Koge2026-09-12 13:00Under 2.5 ✓45.4%vs 42.0%▲ +3.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kolding IF– Fredericia | 2026-09-12 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 43.1% | ▲ +17.6% | 2.32 | |
| 2 |  Hvidovre IF– Aalborg | 2026-09-12 | 12:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 74.6% | 67.1% | ▲ +7.5% | 1.49 | |
| 3 |  Esbjerg– Koge | 2026-09-12 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 45.4% | 42.0% | ▲ +3.4% | 2.38 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining 1st Division schedule 10,000 times a day. Vejle win the 2026-2027 title in 69% of them, projecting ~45 points; Hvidovre IF are next at 17%. At the other end, Koge finish in the bottom three in 87% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle | 17 | 45 | 38–51 | 69% | 98% | <1% |
| 2 | Hvidovre IF | 17 | 39 | 33–46 | 17% | 88% | <1% |
| 3 | Fredericia | 12 | 37 | 30–43 | 9% | 76% | <1% |
| 4 |  Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 35 | 29–42 | 4% | 66% | 2% |
| 5 | Aalborg | 11 | 30 | 24–37 | <1% | 24% | 10% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 |  Hillerod | 5 | 25 | 18–31 | <1% | 5% | 39% |
| 11 | Esbjerg | 4 | 24 | 18–30 | — | 4% | 47% |
| 12 | Koge | 3 | 18 | 12–24 | <1% | <1% | 87% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 90 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/denmark/1st-division/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="1st Division live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/denmark/1st-division">1st Division stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every 1st Division match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle | 17 | 13.1 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | Hvidovre IF | 17 | 9.8 | +7.2 | |
| 3 | Fredericia | 12 | 12.6 | -0.6 | |
| 4 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | |
| 5 |  Hobro | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Hillerod | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | |
| 11 | Esbjerg | 4 | 8.9 | -4.9 | |
| 12 | Koge | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+