Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +34.9% at market prices across 72 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Esbjerg produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 24.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Fredericia – AB Copenhagen2026-10-31 12:30Under 2.5Model 59.4%Implied 36.8%▲ +22.7%- Esbjerg – Hvidovre IF2026-10-31 15:00Under 1.5 HTModel 71.7%Implied 61.0%▲ +10.7%
- Kolding IF – Koge2026-10-31 12:00Under 2.5Model 55.4%Implied 47.2%▲ +8.2%
- Aarhus Fremad – Hillerod2026-11-01 14:00Under 2.5Model 59.7%Implied 51.5%▲ +8.2%
- Aalborg – Hobro2026-10-30 18:00Away winModel 29.6%Implied 24.3%▲ +5.3%
- Vendsyssel – Vejle2026-11-01 13:00Away winModel 59.9%Implied 55.2%▲ +4.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fredericia– AB Copenhagen | 2026-10-31 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 36.8% | ▲ +22.7% | 2.72 |
| 2 |  Esbjerg– Hvidovre IF | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 71.7% | 61.0% | ▲ +10.7% | 1.64 |
| 3 |  Kolding IF– Koge | 2026-10-31 | 12:00 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 47.2% | ▲ +8.2% | 2.12 |
| 4 |  Aarhus Fremad– Hillerod | 2026-11-01 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 51.5% | ▲ +8.2% | 1.94 |
| 5 |  Aalborg– Hobro | 2026-10-30 | 18:00 | Away win | 29.6% | 24.3% | ▲ +5.3% | 4.11 |
| 6 |  Vendsyssel– Vejle | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Away win | 59.9% | 55.2% | ▲ +4.7% | 1.81 |
Add 1st Division fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining 1st Division schedule 10,000 times a day. Hvidovre IF win the 2026-2027 title in 56% of them, projecting ~43 points; Vejle are next at 32%. At the other end, Vendsyssel finish in the bottom three in 69% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre IF | 28 | 43 | 38–49 | 56% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Vejle | 23 | 41 | 36–46 | 32% | 98% | — |
| 3 | Fredericia | 20 | 37 | 32–42 | 9% | 91% | <1% |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 18 | 34 | 29–39 | 2% | 69% | <1% |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 15 | 30 | 24–35 | <1% | 21% | 6% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Esbjerg | 10 | 23 | 18–28 | <1% | 1% | 52% |
| 11 | Koge | 11 | 22 | 17–27 | — | <1% | 64% |
| 12 | Vendsyssel | 11 | 21 | 17–27 | — | <1% | 69% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 60 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/denmark/1st-division/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="1st Division live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/denmark/1st-division">1st Division stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 1st Division match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre IF | 28 | 16.9 | +11.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Vejle | 23 | 21.7 | +1.3 | |
| 3 | Fredericia | 20 | 22.2 | -2.2 | |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 18 | 16.9 | +1.1 | |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 15 | 15.0 | -0.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Koge | 11 | 13.5 | -2.5 | |
| 11 | Vendsyssel | 11 | 14.8 | -3.8 | |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 10 | 15.0 | -5.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+