1st Division title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Denmark · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Hvidovre IF (54%), Vejle (30%), Fredericia (15%). 46 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hvidovre IF | 11 | 27 | 4439–50 | 54% | 19 from 11 (1.73/game) |
| Vejle | 11 | 22 | 4236–47 | 30% | 24 from 11 (2.18/game) |
| Fredericia | 11 | 20 | 3934–45 | 15% | 26 from 11 (2.36/game) |
Below 1%: AB Copenhagen, Aarhus Fremad, Aalborg, Kolding IF, Hobro, Hillerod, Vendsyssel, Koge, Esbjerg.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 66 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).