Hvidovre IF vs Aalborg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-12 · 14:00 CET
WWDWW
WDDDLThe score model made a Hvidovre IF win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hvidovre IF 1.47 – 1.12 Aalborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hvidovre IF win | 44.5% | 38.9% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.8% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Aalborg win | 28.1% | 34.4% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 55.3% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 34.3% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 59.2% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 37.5% | -11.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hvidovre IF 33.3 / Aalborg 29.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.