Aarhus Fremad vs Kolding IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-06 · 13:00 CET
DWDLL
WLDDDThe score model made an Aarhus Fremad win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 1.20 – 0.92 Kolding IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad win | 42.0% | 43.2% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.9% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Kolding IF win | 27.7% | 28.9% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.7% | 53.1% | -17.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 32.8% | -16.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 57.5% | -14.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 36.0% | -10.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aarhus Fremad 25.6 / Kolding IF 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.