Fredericia vs Esbjerg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
LWDDW
LLDLDThe score model made a Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fredericia 1.75 – 1.19 Esbjerg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericia win | 50.0% | 65.2% | -15.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 18.1% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Esbjerg win | 25.6% | 16.7% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 73.8% | -17.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 54.3% | -20.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 66.4% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 50.8% | -23.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fredericia 15.8 / Esbjerg 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.