Koge vs Hillerod
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-04 · 19:00 CET
DDDDW
LWDWDThe score model made a Hillerod win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koge 1.16 – 1.65 Hillerod.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koge win | 26.5% | 36.2% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.9% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Hillerod win | 48.4% | 36.9% | +11.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 57.3% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 36.4% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 61.1% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 38.9% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koge 35.9 / Hillerod 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.