Hobro vs Hvidovre IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-04 · 18:00 CET
WLLDL
WWDWWThe score model made a Hvidovre IF win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hobro 1.04 – 1.34 Hvidovre IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobro win | 28.7% | 38.9% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.4% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Hvidovre IF win | 43.0% | 33.7% | +9.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 52.5% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 32.0% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 57.0% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 35.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hobro 35.9 / Hvidovre IF 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.