Kromeriz vs Opava
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-12 · 17:30 CET
DDLLL
LDWWLThe score model made an Opava win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kromeriz 1.07 – 1.18 Opava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kromeriz win | 33.0% | 31.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Opava win | 38.5% | 40.8% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 51.6% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.9% | 31.2% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 56.3% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 35.6% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kromeriz 29.8 / Opava 41.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kromeriz vs Opava in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.