Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +14.4% at market prices across 72 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Kromeriz produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Kromeriz – Pribram2026-10-10 15:30Under 2.5Model 60.7%Implied 52.1%▲ +8.6%- Jihlava – Prostejov2026-10-09 16:00Under 2.5Model 56.7%Implied 48.5%▲ +8.1%
- Dukla Prague – Ostrava B2026-10-12 15:00Over 2.5Model 63.0%Implied 59.5%▲ +3.5%
- Slavia Prague B – Vlasim2026-10-09 15:00FT U3.5Model 63.2%Implied 59.9%▲ +3.3%
- Usti nad Labem – Opava2026-10-09 16:00Over 1.5 HTModel 43.7%Implied 41.3%▲ +2.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kromeriz– Pribram | 2026-10-10 | 15:30 | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 52.1% | ▲ +8.6% | 1.92 |
| 2 |  Jihlava– Prostejov | 2026-10-09 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 48.5% | ▲ +8.1% | 2.06 |
| 3 |  Dukla Prague– Ostrava B | 2026-10-12 | 15:00 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 59.5% | ▲ +3.5% | 1.68 |
| 4 |  Slavia Prague B– Vlasim | 2026-10-09 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 63.2% | 59.9% | ▲ +3.3% | 1.67 |
| 5 |  Usti nad Labem– Opava | 2026-10-09 | 16:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 43.7% | 41.3% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.42 |
Add FNL fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining FNL schedule 10,000 times a day. Karvina win the 2026-2027 title in 36% of them, projecting ~54 points; Dukla Prague are next at 29%. At the other end, Trinec finish in the bottom three in 72% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karvina | 18 | 54 | 46–61 | 36% | 84% | <1% |
| 2 | Dukla Prague | 17 | 53 | 45–60 | 29% | 80% | <1% |
| 3 | Usti nad Labem | 18 | 52 | 44–59 | 20% | 72% | <1% |
| 4 |  Taborsko | 13 | 47 | 39–54 | 5% | 42% | <1% |
| 5 | Vlasim | 12 | 45 | 38–53 | 4% | 33% | 1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Prostejov | 8 | 32 | 25–39 | — | <1% | 48% |
| 15 | Kromeriz | 6 | 29 | 22–36 | — | <1% | 70% |
| 16 | Trinec | 7 | 29 | 22–36 | — | <1% | 72% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 168 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/czech-republic/chnl/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="FNL live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/czech-republic/chnl">FNL stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every FNL match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karvina | 18 | 17.3 | +0.7 | |
| 2 | Usti nad Labem | 18 | 13.7 | +4.3 | |
| 3 | Dukla Prague | 17 | 14.8 | +2.2 | |
| 4 | Jihlava | 16 | 13.7 | +2.3 | |
| 5 | Pribram | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Prostejov | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 | |
| 15 | Trinec | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | |
| 16 | Kromeriz | 6 | 10.0 | -4.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+