FNL

We simulate the remaining FNL schedule 10,000 times a day. Karvina win the 2026-2027 title in 89% of them, projecting ~63 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Trinec finish in the bottom three in 76% of simulations.

#	Team	Pts now	Proj. pts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3
1	Karvina	31	63	57–69	89%	>99%	—
2	Dukla Prague	27	54	47–60	9%	90%	—
3	Jihlava	26	48	41–55	1%	61%	<1%
4	Vlasim	21	47	40–53	<1%	53%	<1%
5	Pribram	21	44	38–51	<1%	32%	<1%
· · ·
14	Prostejov	14	32	26–39	—	<1%	49%
15	Kromeriz	12	31	24–38	—	<1%	62%
16	Trinec	11	29	22–35	—	<1%	76%

Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 129 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.

<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/czech-republic/chnl/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="FNL live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/czech-republic/chnl">FNL stats by Football Charts</a></p>

How each market's prices compared with what happened in every FNL match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.

#	Team	Pts	xPTS	Δ	Verdict
1	Karvina	31	25.4	+5.6
2	Dukla Prague	27	22.8	+4.2
3	Jihlava	26	21.4	+4.6
4	Vlasim	21	19.2	+1.8
5	Pribram	21	18.8	+2.2
· · ·
14	Prostejov	14	16.4	-2.4
15	Kromeriz	12	14.5	-2.5
16	Trinec	11	14.2	-3.2

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